The Experience That Taught Nothing: Kahneman and Klein’s 2009 Conditions for Intuitive Expertise, the Forecasters Cowles Scored, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Must Ask Whether His Environment Can Teach

The Experience That Taught Nothing: two loops of cue, action and outcome, one with prompt feedback and one with the feedback broken, above bars showing skill matching confidence in the first and far below it in the second

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Manish Goel, FCA

Behavioural Finance, Premium

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The Experience That Taught Nothing: Kahneman and Klein’s 2009 Conditions for Intuitive Expertise, the Forecasters Cowles Scored, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Must Ask Whether His Environment Can Teach

More posts

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached