The Disjunction Effect: Tversky and Shafir’s 1992 Discovery That Investors Defer Choices They Would Make Under Every Outcome, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Should Stop Waiting for the Fog to Clear

Branch diagram: a scheduled uncertainty resolves to outcome A or outcome B, both leading to the same decision, while a dashed grey path labelled wait exists only before the answer; stat chips show 54-57-32 per cent action rates and 80 per cent of excess returns before FOMC announcements.

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