The Word Without a Number: Sherman Kent’s 1964 Warning About Words of Estimative Probability, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Must Put a Figure Beside Every “Likely”

The Word Without a Number - three horizontal bars showing the range of probabilities people assign to likely, real possibility and might happen

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Manish Goel, FCA

Behavioural Finance, Premium

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The Word Without a Number: Sherman Kent’s 1964 Warning About Words of Estimative Probability, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Must Put a Figure Beside Every “Likely”

More posts

The Queue Is a Clock: John Little’s 1961 Identity L = λW, a Housing Pile Measured in Months, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Divides Every Stock by Its Flow

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis