The Ten-Year Yardstick: Campbell and Shiller’s 1988 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings, the Warning of 1996, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Uses CAPE to Set Expectations and Not Dates

Line chart of the Shiller CAPE ratio, January readings 1872 to 2026, with the long-run mean of 17.5

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Manish Goel, FCA

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The Ten-Year Yardstick: Campbell and Shiller’s 1988 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings, the Warning of 1996, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Uses CAPE to Set Expectations and Not Dates

More posts

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached