Being First Is Not Staying First: Lieberman and Montgomery’s 1988 First-Mover Advantages, Golder and Tellis’s Test on 500 Brands, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Should Ask of an Early Lead

Two pairs of bars comparing pioneers with early leaders: failure rate 47 per cent against 8 per cent, and mean market share 10 per cent against 28 per cent

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Manish Goel, FCA

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←Long Calm, Sudden Change: Eldredge and Gould’s 1972 Punctuated Equilibrium, the Swiss Watch Industry’s Quartz Decade, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Plans for Stasis Broken by Short Bursts

Where the Light Is: Kaplan’s 1964 Drunkard’s Search, the Body Count That Stood In for Winning, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Does With the Value a Ledger Cannot Show→

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10 November 2026
The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

9 November 2026
Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

8 November 2026
Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

7 November 2026

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Being First Is Not Staying First: Lieberman and Montgomery’s 1988 First-Mover Advantages, Golder and Tellis’s Test on 500 Brands, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Should Ask of an Early Lead

More posts

The Queue Is a Clock: John Little’s 1961 Identity L = λW, a Housing Pile Measured in Months, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Divides Every Stock by Its Flow

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis