Redundancy: Von Neumann’s 1956 Multiplexing Theorem, the Ariane Backup That Failed 0.05 Seconds Later, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts Shared Causes Before Counting Cushions

Cover: bar chart of failure probability for one unit, two independent units, and two or five units with a 10 percent shared cause

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Manish Goel, FCA

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Redundancy: Von Neumann’s 1956 Multiplexing Theorem, the Ariane Backup That Failed 0.05 Seconds Later, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts Shared Causes Before Counting Cushions

More posts

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached