Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Bengen’s 1994 Withdrawal Study, Yale’s Fourteen Years of Falling Purchasing Power, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Does About the First Decade

Cover: bar chart of the highest sustainable first-year withdrawal rate for each US retirement year from 1871 to 1993

Written by

Manish Goel, FCA

Mental Models, Premium

This essay is for Manish Goel Plus members.

Join to unlock all 398 premium essays — the complete NorthPath archive plus every new daily edition. €15/month or €150/year. The latest Letter is always free.

🔒 398 ESSAYS IN THE ARCHIVE — AND COUNTING

Subscribe to read →

Already a member? Sign in

←Ecological Succession: Clements’s 1916 Sequence, Connell and Slatyer’s Three Mechanisms, and What a Cleared Market Teaches the Long-Term Equity Investor

Symbiosis: de Bary’s 1879 Definition, Bronstein’s Conditional Outcomes, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Asks Whether a Partnership Is Feeding the Business or Feeding on It→

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

9 November 2026
Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

8 November 2026
Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

7 November 2026
The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached

6 November 2026

NorthPath Advisory OÜ

Strategy and analysis of global businesses and capital markets. Strategy, not stock tips.

Registered office: Sepapaja tn 6, 15551 Tallinn, Estonia
Registry code: 17537081
Contact: info@northpathadvisory.eu

Sitemap

Home
The Letter
Membership
About
Services
In the Press
Contact

Important. NorthPath Advisory OÜ is not a MiFID II-authorised investment firm. All content on this site is journalism and education for a general audience. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice or a recommendation in respect of any specific financial instrument, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Where individual securities are discussed, the author’s position is disclosed in the relevant essay in line with Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (Market Abuse Regulation), Article 20. Readers should consult an authorised financial adviser regulated in their own jurisdiction before making any investment decision.

Privacy · Terms · Contact

Sequence-of-Returns Risk: Bengen’s 1994 Withdrawal Study, Yale’s Fourteen Years of Falling Purchasing Power, and What the Long-Term Equity Investor Does About the First Decade

More posts

The Half-Life of Facts: Burton and Kebler’s 1960 Borrowed Metaphor, Poynard’s Forty-Five-Year Measurement of Clinical Truth, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Dates Every Input to a Thesis

Hanlon’s Razor: Bloch’s 1980 Printing of an Older Warning, the Arithmetic of Intent and Error, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Writes the Tripwire Before the Surprise

Occam’s Razor: Ockham’s Fourteenth-Century Rule of Parsimony, the Bayesian and Predictive Case for It, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Counts the Assumptions in a Thesis

The Stockdale Paradox: Collins’s 2001 Name for Faith in the End and Honesty About the Present, and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Needs Both Without a Date Attached