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The NorthPath Letter
Long-form strategic analysis of global businesses, capital markets, and the business of investing — written for the professional reader who wants structural understanding, not daily noise.
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All essays are journalism and education for a general professional readership. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation in respect of any specific financial instrument. Where individual securities are discussed, the author’s position is disclosed in the relevant essay in line with MAR Article 20.
- Regression to the Mean: Francis Galton’s 1886 Discovery and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Must Tell Skill From Statistical Gravity
- Money Illusion: Shafir, Diamond and Tversky’s 1997 Discovery and Why the Long-Term Equity Investor Routinely Confuses Nominal Returns With Real Wealth
- The Central Limit Theorem: Laplace’s 1810 Memoir and Why the Long-Term Investor’s Friend Is Aggregation, Not Prediction
- The Hot-Stove Effect: Denrell and March’s 2001 Adaptive-Sampling Model and Why a Single Punishing Draw Permanently Distorts an Investor’s Estimate of an Entire Category
- Graham’s Seven Tests for the Defensive Investor: The 1973 Quantitative Screen That Still Filters the Global Equity Universe
- Reading the BRSR: India’s ESG Disclosure Framework, What’s Useful, What’s Noise
- Form AOC-1: The One-Page X-Ray of an Indian Group
- Probability Weighting and the Fourfold Pattern: Tversky and Kahneman’s 1992 Cumulative Prospect Theory and Why the Long-Term Investor Routinely Misprices Both Tails of the Distribution
- Spin-Off Investing: Joel Greenblatt’s 1997 Framework and Three Decades of Academic Evidence on Corporate Separations
- The Law of Large Numbers: Bernoulli’s 1713 Golden Theorem and the Long-Term Equity Investor
- Extrapolative Expectations: Why the Future the Investor Forecasts Looks Like the Past the Investor Just Survived
- Reading Indian Segmental Disclosures: Ind AS 108, the Management Approach, and the Conglomerate X-Ray
- Expectations Investing: How Alfred Rappaport and Michael Mauboussin’s 2001 Framework Asks the Long-Term Investor to Read the Price as a Forecast
- Bayes’ Rule: Thomas Bayes (1763) and the Long-Term Investor
- The Tyranny of the Vivid: Salience Theory and the Long-Term Investor
- The CARO 2020 Framework: Twenty-One Questions Indian Auditors Must Answer, and What Each One Reveals
- The Long Tail of Equity Returns: Hendrik Bessembinder’s 2018 and 2023 Findings, and What They Demand of the Long-Term Investor
- Float Economics: How an Insurance Balance Sheet Became the Most Powerful Compounding Engine in Modern Finance
- The Peak-End Rule: Why a Long-Term Investor’s Memory of a Decade Is Anchored on Two Days — Kahneman & Redelmeier’s 1993 Discovery and the Discipline of Honest Portfolio Review
- Standalone vs Consolidated: Reading Indian Group Financials
- What “Promoter” Means in Indian Listed Equity — and Why It Changes Everything
- Reading an Indian Annual Report When You Didn’t Grow Up in India
- What This Publication Is
